District studies numbers as enrollment growth slows

Sustained annual enrollment growth has become pretty common for 27J Schools.

While the district still grew this year, it slowed down compared to what it has become accustomed to. That has district leaders examining the final numbers.

The bottom line for 27J’s whole district enrollment is that it increased its preschool through 12th grade student count by 334 compared to last year.

What did the numbers say? 

School districts use a variety of reports to develop projections – an estimation of the number of students they anticipate will enroll in each school. Doing this allows the district to build a budget and prepare to provide services for the right number of students. Those numbers are then verified against the official enrollment day counts on Oct. 1. That final number is reported to the state to calculate its growth and determine state funding. Lawmakers also use the data to evaluate school funding proposals.  Here’s a breakdown of enrollment numbers compared to the district’s projections, according to unofficial October enrollment numbers for district managed schools.

• The district enrolled about 6,615 kindergarten through fifth-grade students this fall. That was about 231 students, or about 3.3 percent below what district officials estimated.
   
• At the middle school level, 27J Schools has 3,467 students, just about 17 students short of the district’s estimation, or about .5 percent.
   
• At high school, there are 5,501 students, 95 students below enrollment estimates, or 1.7 percent. 

Despite this, the district as a whole grew this year by about 1 percent. 

However, much of that growth was absorbed by the addition of another charter school, which opened in Commerce City this fall with a K-6 enrollment of about 460 students. 

The financial impact

Because the majority of the district's growth went to charter school enrollment, the district doesn’t receive a financial boost from those additional students. The district doesn’t receive State funding for charter school students.

The district will manage this situation using a financial plan calling for tapping into its savings account, technically referred to as its reserve fund balance. This is part of a plan district leaders put in place two years ago to prepare for a shift in enrollment numbers. These decisions were made with the focus on avoiding an impact on student learning. 

What’s the reason behind the slowdown?

Economic forecasters and demographic experts believe the reduction in birth rates over the last several years has caught up with schools. While new houses continue to pop up in the district, 27J’s community population netted fewer children. Those kids are now ready for school, and there are fewer of them compared to past years. 

Recently, enrollment drops have become a common story for many Colorado metro area school districts. What many of those districts have lacked is 27J’s potential for new home starts and development, which contribute to enrollment growth, particularly in the Commerce City and Thornton portions of the district.

“It’s important to remember that, in general, growth didn’t stop this year,” Planning Manager Greg Thompson said.  “Our short-term enrollment projections show that overall, 27J will continue to see some small enrollment increases in the next several years. Student growth rates will likely return to more traditional levels when economic conditions improve, housing prices moderate, and birth rates rebound.”